Wolf Pack Trading Community

gold strategy

hi

Current watchlist for next week: EURUSD (bullish breakout retest), GBPJPY (sell the rally at 197.50), XAUUSD (buy dip at 2,290), BTC (hold above 67k for continuation), Bank Nifty (range 47,200-48,400, trade the extremes). Levels marked, alerts set. Ready.

NiftyBees vs direct Nifty futures for swing trades: NiftyBees has no expiry risk, no margin requirement, and you can hold for weeks without theta decay. For swing trading (more than 3 days), NiftyBees ETF is actually better than futures for most retail traders…

One thing that took me 2 years to understand: you don't need to be right all the time to make money. With a 45% win rate and 1:2.5 R:R, you are profitable. Math: (45 × 2.5) - (55 × 1) = 112.5 - 55 = 57.5 net R. Manage your risk:reward, not your win rate.

USD/CHF breakout from a falling wedge on 4H. Confirmed with a strong bullish engulfing. Entry at 0.9065, SL at 0.9020, target at 0.9160. The SNB (Swiss National Bank) has been more dovish recently which could weaken CHF further.

Swing trading setup in HDFC Bank: The stock has been in a downtrend but is now forming a base above ₹1,420 support. RSI divergence on the weekly chart. Accumulating small position here with SL below ₹1,390. Target ₹1,560 over 6-8 weeks.

Weekend study time. Going through 200 trades from the last 6 months. Pattern I found: 73% of my losing trades were taken during the first 15 minutes of market open. New rule: No entries in the first 15 minutes. Let the volatility settle, then trade the structu…

Polygon (MATIC) breakout from a 3-month descending wedge. This is a high-probability reversal pattern. Volume confirmation on the break. Target is the previous swing high at $0.95. Aggressive SL below the wedge at $0.62, conservative SL at $0.58.

How I use open interest in options: Rising OI + rising price = strong uptrend. Rising OI + falling price = strong downtrend. Falling OI + rising price = short covering rally (weak). Falling OI + falling price = long unwinding (weak). Always combine OI with pri…

Key levels on Gold this week: Support at $2,295 and $2,270. Resistance at $2,340 and $2,365. Price is in a bullish channel — buy dips near support, avoid chasing at resistance. The macro tailwind (rate cut expectations) remains intact.

Sharing my monthly P&L for accountability: April — +₹47,000 (23.5% on ₹2L account). 31 trades, 19 wins, 12 losses. Biggest winner: Bank Nifty short on expiry day +₹18,000. Biggest loser: Nifty CE buy during news event -₹9,000. Rule: No news trading from May.

EUR/USD and DXY (Dollar Index) are nearly 95% inversely correlated. Instead of analyzing EUR/USD alone, I always check DXY first. If DXY is at resistance and showing bearish momentum, EUR/USD is likely to rise. Always confirm with the index.

Adani Ports is setting up beautifully on the weekly chart. 12-week consolidation near ₹1,380 with declining volume — classic Wyckoff accumulation pattern. A volume breakout above ₹1,420 would be the trigger. Sector tailwinds with port capacity expansion news.

My trade checklist before every entry: 1) HTF trend direction ✓ 2) At a key level ✓ 3) Entry pattern formed ✓ 4) R:R minimum 1:2 ✓ 5) Not within 30 mins of a news event ✓. If any box is unchecked, I skip the trade. Saved me from many bad entries.

USD/INR technical view: The pair is testing 83.50 resistance. RBI is known to defend this level aggressively. If you are importing, this is a good level to hedge. If trading, the risk:reward of shorting here is attractive with SL at 83.80, target 82.80.

Learnt the hard way: Never add to a losing position. Your initial analysis was wrong — adding more just compounds the mistake. The only time I add to a trade is when it is already in profit and has proven the thesis correct. Scale in with winners, not losers.

Bitcoin dominance chart is crucial. When BTC dominance rises, altcoins bleed. When dominance falls, altcoin season is starting. Currently at 54% and rising — this is not the time to go heavy into altcoins. Wait for BTC dominance to peak and reverse.

The TBS (Turtle Body Soup) setup explained simply: 1) Find a swept HTF level (C2 manipulation candle) 2) Drop to 5M 3) Look for a 5M candle whose BODY closes beyond the swept level 4) Enter at the close of that candle 5) SL above the wick. Clean and mechanical…

GBP/JPY scalp — London open trap and reverse. Price spiked to 196.80 (stop hunt above Asian high), then formed a strong bearish engulfing on 5M. Shorted from 196.65, target was 195.80. Hit in 45 minutes. Classic liquidity grab play.