#macro
11 posts
Explore trading posts, strategies, and discussions tagged with #macro on JustWolves.
Showing 11 of 11 posts tagged #macro
Monthly Market Outlook: The 3 Major Themes Defining Q3 2025
Here's how I'm framing the macro picture for Q3 2025 — the three themes I think will define most major market moves: Theme 1: The Fed Pivot Timing Markets have been oscillating between "one cut in 2025" and "two cuts in 2025" all year. The September meeting i…
Weekly Market Overview: Key Themes Driving All Asset Classes This Week
Weekly markets overview — the key themes driving price action across all asset classes: Theme 1: Fed Rate Expectations The Federal Reserve remains the primary driver of global markets. Rate cut expectations have been pushed further out due to sticky inflation…
Gold Trading Strategy: Safe Haven vs Risk-On Environment Framework
Gold doesn't move in a vacuum — it responds to the broader risk environment in predictable ways. Here's a framework for trading gold based on macro context: Framework: Is the market in Risk-On or Risk-Off mode? Check these indicators: - VIX (CBOE Volatility…
CPI Explained: How Inflation Data Moves Forex, Gold, and Stocks
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's the most widely watched inflation gauge globally. CPI components (approximate US weighting): • Shelter/Housing: 34% • Food: 14% • E…
Core CPI vs Headline CPI: Which Should Traders Focus On?
One of the debates among macro traders is whether to focus on Headline CPI (includes everything) or Core CPI (excludes food and energy) when assessing market impact. The argument for focusing on Headline: - Consumers pay headline prices — politically and soci…
FOMC Explained: How Federal Reserve Decisions Move Every Market
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the most important group of people in financial markets. Here's everything traders need to understand: What is the FOMC? The FOMC sets US interest rates. They meet 8 times per year. Their primary tools: - Federal Fu…
Fed Policy Outlook: Rate Cut Timeline and Market Implications
The Fed's "higher for longer" policy has been the dominant market narrative since Q1 2023. Here's where things stand and the most likely path forward: Current state: Fed Funds Rate: 5.25–5.50% (23-year high) Inflation (PCE): ~2.7% (above the 2% target) Employ…
Why Gold Moves: USD, Real Yields, and Safe Haven Demand Explained
Gold is the most widely followed commodity by traders, yet many don't understand the forces driving its price. Here's a clear breakdown: 1. US Dollar (DXY) Correlation Gold is priced in USD — when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for foreign buyers, i…
Are You Bullish or Bearish on Gold This Quarter?
Gold has had an extraordinary run in 2024–2025, making multiple all-time highs and defying many analysts' expectations. The question now is: what's the path forward for the next 3 months? Bull case: - Central bank accumulation continues - Global rate cuts red…