Gold Weekly Technical Analysis: ATH Zone Test and Key Decision Point

Gold (XAUUSD) is at one of the most significant technical decision points in years — the all-time high zone between $2,400–$2,431. **Weekly chart structure:** Gold has made 3 attempts to close above $2,400 on the weekly chart in the past 6 weeks. None have produced a sustained breakout — the weekly candles are showing upper wicks after touching this zone. **However, the bullish case remains intact:** - Higher lows on both the weekly and monthly charts - 20-week MA (currently $2,180) is trending up sharply - Gold ETF holdings (GLD, IAU) are rising — institutional accumulation **Scenarios:** **Breakout scenario (55% probability):** Weekly close above $2,420 triggers a fast extension to $2,480–$2,500. Enter on the weekly candle breakout close. **Rejection scenario (45%):** Another weekly wick rejection at $2,400 triggers a correction to $2,280–$2,320 demand zone before the next attempt. Key this week: FOMC minutes and PCE data. Any hawkish surprise = gold pressure. Any dovish hint = gold breakout catalyst. Are you positioned for the gold breakout or protecting capital against a correction?