💬 Discussion#fomc#fed#pattern#usd
W
Wolf Cub
Trader ·
✦
A pattern I've noticed across 15+ FOMC meetings: the "FOMC drift" that happens in the days leading up to each meeting.
In the 48–72 hours before an FOMC meeting, USD pairs often make a directional move that's the opposite of what the FOMC ends up causing.
Example: Before a hawkish FOMC, EUR/USD often rallies 40–60 pips in the 2 days prior — setting up late buyers for a squeeze when the hawkish statement drops.
Why does this happen?
- Market makers are accumulating positions ahead of the event
- Retail traders are buying "anticipation" moves in the wrong direction
- The pre-meeting move creates the liquidity that institutional players need for their post-event positions
For traders, this creates a setup:
1. Identify the pre-meeting drift direction
2. The FOMC move is often the opposite
3. Position accordingly in the 24 hours before the meeting
Have you noticed the pre-FOMC drift pattern? Does it align with your experience?