💬 Discussion#nfp#employment#usd#data
W
Wolf Cub
Trader ·
✦
A fact about NFP that many traders overlook: the revision to last month's number is sometimes more impactful than the current month's number.
Each NFP release includes a revision to the prior month. If March NFP was reported as 200,000 and is revised to 280,000 in April's release, that revision effectively means 280,000 jobs were added last month — significantly more than the market had been pricing.
Revision examples that moved markets more than the headline:
- A "miss" that turned into a beat after upward revisions created a prolonged USD rally
- A "blowout" headline followed by a major downward revision to prior months — causing USD to reverse the initial gain
**Trading implication:**
When you get the NFP release, check three numbers in this order:
1. Previous month revision (surprise factor)
2. Current month headline vs expectation
3. Wages
The total picture from all three tells the real story.
Do you factor in revision surprises when trading NFP? Have you ever had a trade affected by an unexpected revision?